No account? Create an account
Mathematician help
2nd-May-2008 04:23 pm
I need some math help. specifically in statistics. I have the population of one particular continent of my world. The population is currently 2000. I want to calculate how many people I would have in 100 and 200 years given a lifespan of 50 years and an average birthrate of 2 children per family. Anyone good at this kind of thing?

edit: if any other information would be helpful please let me know. I would like the most realistic results possible.
2nd-May-2008 11:03 pm (UTC)
Well, you have to take into account murder, death by wild animals and bandits, stillborns, warfare, plagues, illness and the like.

Take these 10 people...
person one is stillborn = 0
Person two dies of Pneumonia at 2
Person three is killed by a grizzly at 5
Person four is murdered at 20
Person five falls off of a cliff and dies at 30
Person six lives to 30 due to bad genes
Person seven lives to 60
Person eight lives to 61
Person nine lives to 70
Person ten lives to 72

That's an average of 35. If we don't count the stillborn, that's still 38.88~
If we add in someone who lived to 100, it brings it up to 40.9 or 45 if we don't count the stillborn.

So yes, a medieval world is perilous.