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Mathematician help
2nd-May-2008 04:23 pm
I need some math help. specifically in statistics. I have the population of one particular continent of my world. The population is currently 2000. I want to calculate how many people I would have in 100 and 200 years given a lifespan of 50 years and an average birthrate of 2 children per family. Anyone good at this kind of thing?

edit: if any other information would be helpful please let me know. I would like the most realistic results possible.
2nd-May-2008 10:48 pm (UTC)
Oh wait... I'm on the d&de board... Fantasy games aren't supposed to make sense. 50 years old is normal since kids can have babies and old people can be grandparents younger than Real Life... :P
2nd-May-2008 11:03 pm (UTC)
Well, you have to take into account murder, death by wild animals and bandits, stillborns, warfare, plagues, illness and the like.

Take these 10 people...
person one is stillborn = 0
Person two dies of Pneumonia at 2
Person three is killed by a grizzly at 5
Person four is murdered at 20
Person five falls off of a cliff and dies at 30
Person six lives to 30 due to bad genes
Person seven lives to 60
Person eight lives to 61
Person nine lives to 70
Person ten lives to 72

That's an average of 35. If we don't count the stillborn, that's still 38.88~
If we add in someone who lived to 100, it brings it up to 40.9 or 45 if we don't count the stillborn.

So yes, a medieval world is perilous.
2nd-May-2008 11:20 pm (UTC)
Oh wait... I'm on the d&de board... Fantasy games aren't supposed to make sense. 50 years old is normal since kids can have babies and old people can be grandparents younger than Real Life... :P

I'm 28. If I were a woman, it'd be moderately likely that I'd be a grandmother by now, if I lived in ye olden times upon which fanatsy medivalism is based.

As I'm a man and not a woman, I'd still be on my first generation, with my eldest, assuming he survived, being about 10. In another eight years, I might become a grandfather. And eighteen years after that, well, odds are looking pretty good I'd be dead already.

There's no medical reason, and in some states no legal barrier, to becoming a parent as young as 14. Round it up to fifteen for the sake of of math, and by the time you reach your life expectant age of 75 or so, you'll be on your fifth generation of descendants. That is, you'll be a great-great-great grandfather.

If you think it doesn't make sense, you don't know much, do you?

(And "assume 2 kids per family" isn't that unrealistic, given the high mortality rate. If my wife and I have ten kids, half of whom die before they become adults, and another half of whom are eaten by trolls or something, we only added 2.5 adults to the population.)
3rd-May-2008 12:07 am (UTC)
Um... I was just saying it was "normal for a fantasy game". I'm fully aware of age expectancy in the dark ages.

As far as modern day life goes, age expectancy of 50 is not normal. It's why I said "I just realised this was the d&d3e board". Because that's literally what I meant. I commented on this from my Friends Page without realising it was the d&d3e board...

Also my statement of a fantasy game not making sense, still holds. Dragons and trolls and whatnot, you'd have to be insane to believe such things ever existed. Dragons are clearly superior beings, amongst many other fantastical creatures from d&de (mind flayers, etc)... If such creatures ever did exist, they'd probably have killed us all by now.
3rd-May-2008 12:34 am (UTC)
Also my statement of a fantasy game not making sense, still holds. Dragons and trolls and whatnot, you'd have to be insane to believe such things ever existed. Dragons are clearly superior beings, amongst many other fantastical creatures from d&de (mind flayers, etc)... If such creatures ever did exist, they'd probably have killed us all by now.

Nope, sorry. Wrong on all counts.

I'll start with the offensive one -- there's a huge difference between having an unusual, but unfalsifiable, belief, and being mentally ill. The former might think that aliens exist or there is a secret society controlling the world. The latter mispercieves those "maybes" as facts they have experienced. (I don't know if that's more offensive to the mentally ill, or the religious.)

Moving backwards, a fantasy game--or, indeed, any setting or human intellectual construction -- needs to make sense. If it's not internally consistent, it's impossible to advance within. I don't know a DM who doesn't want their setting to follow from logical conclusions after the supernatural facts are established. ("If dragons exist, they must eat...")

Lastly -- if you think dragons or mind flayers are less capable than human beings, you haven't been paying attention. Both creatures have impressive physical might, but they are individualistic and short-sighted, both of which don't tend well to defeating foes that are not.